Extreme summer heat in Phoenix, Arizona (USA) under global climate change (2041-2070)

Authors

  • Susanne Grossman-Clarke Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam
  • Sebastian Schubert Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam
  • Thomas A. Clarke Meistersingerstr. 6, 14471 Potsdam
  • Sharon L. Harlan School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-2402

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12854/erde-145-5

Keywords:

Extreme heat events, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Abstract

Summer extreme heat events in the arid Phoenix, Arizona (USA) metropolitan region for the period 2041-2070 are projected based on the ensemble of ten climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme heat events are identified by measures related to two thresholds of the maximum daily air temperature distribution for the historical reference period 1971-2000. Comparing this reference period to the model ensemble-mean, the frequency of extreme heat events is projected to increase by a factor of six to 1.9 events per summer and the average number of event days per year is projected to increase by a factor of 14. The inter-model range for the average number of EHE days per summer is larger for the projected climate, 10.6 to 42.2 days, than for simulations of the past climate simulations (1.5 to 2.4 days).

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Published

2014-09-02

How to Cite

Grossman-Clarke, S., Schubert, S., Clarke, T. A., & Harlan, S. L. (2014). Extreme summer heat in Phoenix, Arizona (USA) under global climate change (2041-2070). DIE ERDE – Journal of the Geographical Society of Berlin, 145(1-2), 49–61. https://doi.org/10.12854/erde-145-5

Issue

Vol. 145 No. 1-2 (2014): Urban climate and heat stress – Part 2

Section

Research articles

License

Creative Commons License

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Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.